One of the hardest parts of handicapping horse races is knowing just how important each factor really is. For instance, in races for 2 year old fillies at your favorite track, early speed may be the most important factor to take into consideration when trying to pick a winner. In races for older horses, horses may win from off the pace more and class may be a more important factor.
So how do you figure out just how much weight to give each part of the puzzle? It starts by handicapping each race and noting which horse wins. Break it down into the different aspects and give a score for each one. For instance, add the speed figures in the last three races and write that number beside each horse’s name in the form. Next, using pace figures or speed points, determine each horse’s running style and where you figure it will be at each stage of the race and write that beside the horse’s name.
Next, add the purse value in the horse’s last three races and place that number beside the horse’s name. You now have some significant numbers that can be compared to arrive at a hierarchy of horses based on each number. The horse with the highest speed rating will be the top speed horse and each horse will follow in order based on speed. Next, do the same with class putting the horse with the top class figure on top and write each horse below it according to the total purse value.
Write these lists of the horses in columns including a column for pace and any other factors you are charting. Now, when a horse wins, circle it and see where it is in each column. Do this for at least 20 races and make sure they are only run on a fast or firm track.
Once you have 20 races and can look at the results, the weight of each factor will start to become apparent. You can assign a percentage to each winner based on its position in the column. A horse in a five horse race that is in the next to top spot would get 20% for each spot so it would be an 80% in that column. To determine what each position in a column is worth, just divide the total number of horses in the race into 100%. An 8 horse race would result in 12 1/2% for each spot. So a horse in the 5th position from the bottom in an 8 horse column, would be 5 x 12 1/2% = 67 1/2%.
When you add the winners total from each column, write it over the column. Then, take all twenty races for each type of race and add the totals for each column. You will then have a score for speed, class, pace, and other any other factors. You may find that speed is the dominant factor or perhaps class. It will usually vary according to the age of the horses, surface type, and distance, so make sure you calculate each type of race for each age and gender.
Now when you handicap a race and add the totals for each horse, multiply it times the weighted factor. Do so for each factor in the race and you will be able to assign odds to each horse based on its true probability of winning. That is how you can simply weight the handicapping categories that you use every day to pick winners and find a fair price.
The most consistent horse racing systems have to have the basics and a handicapper must understand the basics. I have been around horse racing for 50 years including as an owner. Without the basics the rest is not going to do any good. If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to http://williewins.homestead.com/truecb.html and get the truth. Bill Peterson is a former horse race owner and professional handicapper. He comes from a horse race handicapping family and as he puts it, “Horse Racing is in my blood.” To see all Bill’s horse racing material go to http://williewins.homestead.com/handicappingstore.html , Bill’s handicapping store. Article Source:http://www.articlesbase.com/horse-racing-articles/picking-winners-in-horse-races-by-weighting-handicapping-factors-1434251.html