Sometimes in the course of handicapping a horse race, we can narrow it down to two horses but can’t decide which one to bet on.  The problem isn’t just that you don’t know which one will win, it is often that you have that suspicion that no matter which one you bet on, the other will win and you will really feel like a fool.

First of all, don’t start beating up on yourself because you can’t choose between the two of them.  That happens.  Sometimes horses are evenly matched, but you do need to keep sight of what your real objective is and that is to make a profit from your horse racing wagers.  Therefore, the real question becomes one of value relative to ability.

That means that if they both have the same ability, the one at higher odds offers the best value.  Look at it this way, if each horse has a 1 out of 3 chance of winning, or in other words, will win about a third of the time they race under such conditions, then the one that will make you a profit is the one to bet.

If horse A is at 2-1, it is simply a break even bet and not very attractive.  But if horse B is at 4-1, and will win one out of three races, then it is a profitable bet and will pay at least $10 for every $6 invested.  If both horses are at the same odds and you feel each has the same probability of winning, then either one is a good bet.

Finding a good bet is the key to gambling success whether you are playing the horses, blackjack, or any other sport or game.  Value is always relative to probability and odds, or payback.  It is a simple equation, though we often have to work very hard handicapping horse races to understand  each horse’s probability of winning.

If you still feel that no matter which one you bet on, the other will win, then perhaps you are having a crisis of confidence and shouldn’t bet until you solve the problem that is causing you to have a negative attitude.  Nothing creates a negative attitude faster than a losing streak or a few bad beats.  If you have recently lost a few photo finishes or had some other rough luck, that will do it.  Take time off or just read your notes and re-focus on the goal of horse racing handicapping, which is finding the best value bets.

The most consistent horse racing systems have to have the basics and a handicapper must understand the basics. I have been around horse racing for 50 years including as an owner. Without the basics the rest is not going to do any good. If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to http://williewins.homestead.com/truecb.html and get the truth.

Bill Peterson is a former race horse owner and professional handicapper. He comes from a horserace handicapping family and as he puts it, “Horse Racing is in my blood.” To see all Bill’s horse racing material go to http://williewins.homestead.com/handicappingstore.html , Bill’s handicapping store.

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